裂缝地层漏失规律研究

本文根据地下裂缝的漏失特性，建立了地下裂缝漏失规律的数学模型，并导出了各种流体在裂缝中的流动挽律。根据流动规律可以定量分析和计算漏速或漏失量与压差、裂缝尺寸、钻井液流变性能等之间的关系，这时优选优配堵漏荆的性能，选择合理的堵漏方法，提高防漏堵漏的成功率具有重要的指导意义。     

海洋钻井隔水管顶张力分析

隔水管系统足海洋钻井的主要设备之-本丈对描述隔水管运动的四阶非线性偏徽分方程和边界条件进行了简化，并应用有限差分法对隔水管的受力情况进行数值分析.作用在隔水管上的顶张力，使用四种海况进行研究，并编制了相应的计算程序.通过实例计葬，与美国应力工程服务奋司的计葬结果进行比较，结果完全-致.末文提供的动态分析方法及计葬程序具有方法简便、精确度高和机时省千优点，对设计和校核隔水管系统具有实用价值.     

Economic statistical design of the T2 control chart under the Weibull shock model with multiple assignable causes

A proper monitoring of stochastic systems is the control charts of statistical process control and drift in characteristics of output may be due to one or several assignable causes. Although much research has been done on the design of control charts, the economic statistical design of the T2 control chart under the Weibull shock model with multiple assignable causes has not yet been addressed. Therefore, we tried to deal with it in this paper and thus we developed a cost model based on the variable sampling interval. We also give an example to support the practical use of T2 chart under the Weibull shock model with multiple assignable causes. Based on the optimization of the average cost per unit of time and taking into account the different combination values of Weibull distribution parameters, optimal values of design parameters were derived and calculated. Then, the cost models under the influence of single assignable cause and multiple assignable causes under the same cost and time parameters were compared. Also, a sensitivity analysis was conducted in which the variability of loss cost and design parameters due to change of cost and time and Weibull distribution parameters were evaluated.     

A seasonal mixed-POT model to estimate high flood quantiles from different event types and seasons

Flood events can be caused by several different meteorological circumstances. For example, heavy rain events often lead to short flood events with high peaks, whereas snowmelt normally results in events of very long duration with a high volume. Both event types have to be considered in the design of flood protection systems. Unfortunately, all these different event types are often included in annual maximum series (AMS) leading to inhomogeneous samples. Moreover, certain event types are underrepresented in the AMS. This is especially unsatisfactory if the most extreme events result from such an event type. Therefore, monthly maximum data are used to enlarge the information spectrum on the different event types. Of course, not all events can be included in the flood statistics because not every monthly maximum can be declared as a flood. To take this into account, a mixture Peak-over-threshold model is applied, with thresholds specifying flood events of several types that occur in a season of the year. This model is then extended to cover the seasonal type of the data. The applicability is shown in a German case study, where the impact of the single event types in different parts of a year is evaluated.     

Asymptotic distribution of regression correlation coefficient for Poisson regression model

This study treats an asymptotic distribution for measures of predictive power for generalized linear models (GLMs). We focus on the regression correlation coefficient (RCC) that is one of the measures of predictive power. The RCC, proposed by Zheng and Agresti is a population value and a generalization of the population value for the coefficient of determination. Therefore, the RCC is easy to interpret and familiar. Recently, Takahashi and Kurosawa provided an explicit form of the RCC and proposed a new RCC estimator for a Poisson regression model. They also showed the validity of the new estimator compared with other estimators. This study discusses the new statistical properties of the RCC for the Poisson regression model. Furthermore, we show an asymptotic normality of the RCC estimator.     

柏拉图与亚里士多德生成论之比较

柏拉图在《蒂迈欧》和“未成文学说”中所讨论的生成理论与亚里士多德的生成论有很大的相关性，甚至可以说后者是在与前者的对话中形成的。无论是三本原的生成模式学说，火、气、水、土四元素相互生成学说，还是由四元素生成同质体的理论，甚至个别事物的生成理论，亚里士多德都从老师那里获取了理论资源。本文即从这几个方面进行对比论证，表明亚里士多德继承和发展了柏拉图的生成理论。本文还就柏拉图的“接受者”与亚里士多德的最初质料和终极质料的关系进行了进一步的澄清。     

论强纲领中的因果性模型问题

布鲁尔强纲领中所反对的目的论模型来源于巴恩斯提出的目的论模式，他们都拒绝将科学的发展看作真理进化过程，认为作为一种信念的科学知识应当纳入知识社会学的研究领域。布鲁尔进一步提出了与目的论模型相对立的因果性模型，并构建出科学知识社会学应当遵守的四条“强纲领”，力图促使知识社会学成为一门普遍性的学科。布鲁尔声称强纲领的因果性模型与目的论模型是两种相互排斥的形而上学立场，但实际上因果性模型与目的论模型并不完全排斥，甚至还有所交融；同时，他关于因果性模型的论证与辩护也存在诸多问题，是一种不彻底的“强纲领”。     

Defending the Family,Defending the Faith: An Analysis of The Family: A Proclamation to the World,Religious Identity,and the Politics of Same-Sex Marriage in a Mormon Community

In this article, we apply Peter Berger's theory of religion as a social construct to learn how The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (the Mormon Church) advances a heteronormative view of family relationships in the United States using a document titled The Family: A Proclamation to the World. Furthermore, applying cultural studies theory, we examine how believing Mormons negotiate the tension that arises when their secular values compete with those expressed by Church leaders. We argue that, although the Proclamation addresses a number of issues, the Church offers a closed text that emphasizes war narratives in which same-sex marriage is portrayed as a threat to LDS identity and the heteronormative family. This closed text is further legitimized by emphasis on the authority of Church leaders as oracles of God. The study participants largely accept the dominant narrative, and those who reject it, do so with some trepidation.     

Composite Estimation for Single‐Index Models with Responses Subject to Detection Limits

We propose a semiparametric estimator for single‐index models with censored responses due to detection limits. In the presence of left censoring, the mean function cannot be identified without any parametric distributional assumptions, but the quantile function is still identifiable at upper quantile levels. To avoid parametric distributional assumption, we propose to fit censored quantile regression and combine information across quantile levels to estimate the unknown smooth link function and the index parameter. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the estimated link function achieves the non‐parametric optimal convergence rate, and the estimated index parameter is asymptotically normal. The simulation study shows that the proposed estimator is competitive with the omniscient least squares estimator based on the latent uncensored responses for data with normal errors but much more efficient for heavy‐tailed data under light and moderate censoring. The practical value of the proposed method is demonstrated through the analysis of a human immunodeficiency virus antibody data set.